Tick Tock

Has “The Villain” seen his last action in a Wings sweater?

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Take one last good look, because after tomorrow’s matchup against the Los Angeles Kings, the Red Wings roster is going to start looking quite a bit different. With Johan Franzen primed for a return to the lineup on Tuesday in St. Louis, the Wings are going to have to part ways with at least one member of the current roster in order to free up about $700,000 in cap space to accommodate the Mule’s return.  Speculation has been rampant throughout the Wings blogosphere over the past week about who’s on their way out of Motown, and it may not just be one or two players. With Andreas Lilja working on regaining his form over in Grand Rapids, it’s all but certain he will find his way back onto the roster before the season is out. Add his salary back into the equation, and you’re looking at somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.8 – $1.9 million in cap space that needs to be cleared.

By now, we are all intimately familiar with who is on the chopping block, but for those who may have been living under a rock for the last month, let me run through the names one more time:

The Usual Suspects

• Ville Leino
• Brad May
• Brett Lebda
• Derek Meech

Outside Chance

• Kirk Maltby
• Jason Williams

If They Go, I Go Too

• Patrick Eaves
• Drew Miller

Let’s start from the bottom up. Eaves and Miller have all but locked up extensions with the organization, and if either one moves, I’ll commit karakiri. Which brings us to Maltby and Williams. Maltby has been with the organization for far too long for them to ship him off, plus his contract is up at the end of the year, so he’s safe. Williams, on the other hand, is an interesting choice. I’ve mad no attempt to hide the fact that I think he should be offered up as trade bait since he provides the most opportunity to secure something in return, but for a team that is struggling to score points, I don’t think Babcock or Holland will be willing to part ways with one of their power play unit anchors. Despite the attractiveness of shedding his $1.5 million salary, Holland has already said he doesn’t want to carry eight defensemen for the rest of the season, which effectively rules this one out since they could dump Williams and May and have enough room to fit Franzen and Lilja back, but would still be left with a snowman of defenders.

Which leaves us with Leino, May, Lebda and Meech. Three of the four are on their way out and here’s how I think it will go down:

Ville Leino will be waived on Monday.

Holland has himself in a tough spot here with the underachieving Finn. He’s given him chance after chance to step into a more pronounced and assertive game, and Leino has balked at every opportunity. Time has run out on Leino, and he’s the easiest choice to clear the $700K in cap space to accommodate Franzen. Unfortunately, Leino’s sub-par performance this year and lack of NHL experience probably doesn’t put him high up on the “demand” chart for many NHL GM’s, so I imagine Holland is going to have a tough time moving this kid for picks. That said, Holland is a master of the craft and I’m sure he has friends throughout the league who owe him a favor or two, so don’t be surprised to see Leino get traded for a third or fourth rounder.

The more likely outcome is that the rest of the league stands pat on Ville and waits for him to hit the waiver wire on Monday morning. He’ll be scooped up almost immediately and Franzen will be activated on the roster for Tuesday’s tilt in St. Louis. Personally, I think it’s a shame that the Wings have to give up on the guy so soon, but the issue was forced by guys like Eaves and Miller upping their games and Leino just didn’t do enough to keep his spot. If Leino is a healthy scratch tomorrow night, it’s safe to assume he’s on his way out.

Brad May will be waived at some point next week.

The timing of this hinges on whether or not Lilja’s conditioning stint in Grand Rapids gets extended for two extra games, but May will be off the roster at some point next week. If Lilja gets extended out, it means his last game as a Griffin will be on Friday the 12th down in Houston, paving the way for him to be on the active roster on the 13th when Ottawa comes to town. If that’s the case, I would expect May would get waived immediately following the San Jose game on the 11th or on the morning of the 12th. That said, if Lilja doesn’t get extended out, he would be back on the roster early next week, forcing the Wings to move May to the waiver wire on Sunday or Monday.

No matter what happens, May goes on waivers and MAYBE somebody picks him up. If not, he’ll either head down to GR to play in hopes of being called back up if the Wings make the playoffs, or he’ll hang em’ up and call it a career.

Brett Lebda will be traded next week.

Here comes the controversy. There’s some of you that hate Lebda and want him gone and others that can’t stand the thought of having Derek Meech in the lineup down the stretch. No matter which player you think sucks less, it has to be understood that this is ultimately a business and Ken Holland will make a business decision. In this situation, Meech is the absolute best business decision, and not just because he makes less than Lebda. Let me turn it over to Petrella to explain:

“Lebda is unrestricted free agent-to-be, meaning that come July 1st, his services are available to the highest bidder. Derek Meech, however, is a restricted free agent-to-be, meaning the Red Wings would have the right to match any offer sent his way, and would receive compensation if they choose to pass. It’s Ken Holland’s prerogative to qualify his RFA’s, thus keeping the rights to their otherwise free agents. As July 1st approaches, expect Holland to qualify Meech, and letting things develop from there. Either he’s sent offer sheets (for example: Toronto, the new home of Meech’s Junior blueline partner, Dion Phaneuf) or he comes to Red Wings camp again, where he can be traded once its determined he’s not in the team’s plans. Long story short, there’s no hurry to get rid of a restricted free agent that isn’t openly saying he doesn’t want to be here.”

Not to mention that I’m not sure if a Meech/May/Leino combination clears enough cap space to allow Lilja and Franzen to come back.

At any rate, I just can’t see Lebda hitting the waiver wire here, especially if the Wings aren’t asking for anything more than a third or fourth round pick in return. A playoff team in the East that is looking to shore up their defensive depth won’t let a two time Stanley Cup Finals contributor hit the waiver wire just because they don’t want to give up a third round pick to the Red Wings. The real question is “when”? That answer was pretty murky earlier today, but I think it’s almost a sure bet that with Niklas Kronwall missing tomorrow’s game due to injury – thus forcing Mebdeech into the lineup – Lebda will get moved just as soon as Kronwall is ready to get back into the lineup. Combine that with the fact that Lilja could be back early next week and I’m guessing Lebda will be lucky to see any playing time after tomorrow’s game against the Kings.

Leino. Lebda. May.

The clock is ticking.

Tags: Andreas Lilja, Brad May, Brett Lebda, Derek Meech, Drew Miller, Jason Williams, Johan Franzen, Kirk Maltby, Niklas Kronwall, Patrick Eaves, Ville Leino