Making the Playoffs: A Numerical Odyssey

Let’s all use our heads and figure this thing out!

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If you are like me, you’ve probably been sitting in front of the computer the last two weeks anxiously watching the Western Conference standings after every completed night of hockey. The Red Wings have been lurking around that 8/9 cutoff spot for almost a month now, and it’s really starting to annoy you. Every time the Wings jump into the 8 spot, you rejoice and every time they fall back to 9, you’re heartbroken.

This is no way to live life. Seriously.

Rather, let me suggest you focus your energies on what the Wings need to do in order to lock up the playoff spot for themselves. Yes, much of this is dependent on what happens throughout the rest of the conference over the last 27 games, but I am pretty sure that if the Wings do the following things, we’ll see them in the playoffs come April.

Before we take this exercise any further, we need to set the stage and set some guidelines.

The Points Assumption

Since the lockout, the most regular season points from a team in the 8 spot was the Calgary Flames in 2006-2007 with 96. The least was 91 (’07-’08 NSH and ‘08-’09 ANA). Hockey know-it-all James Mirtle has already suggested that it will take 95 points to make the playoffs in the Western Conference this year. I would argue that 94 will get it done, but what do I know anyways. So with 96 being the highest total for an 8 seed since the lockout, and guru Mirtle saying 95 gets it done, we are moving forward with the following assumption:

• 95 points is the number to hit for a guaranteed playoff spot in the Western Conference.

The Standings

Currently, here’s where the Wings sit:

• Points: 62
• Conference Rank: 9th
  
• Games Remaining: 27
• Max Points Possible: 116
• Points Needed for Playoffs (95): 33

The Trend

If you look at the Wings home and road records this season, they shake out to the following percentages:

• Home win % = 55% (15-8-4)
• Road win % = 39% (11-11-6)
• Total win% = 47% (26-19-10)

What does it mean? Well, if the Wings were to hold those numbers through the rest of the season (remember kids, the Wings have 14 home games and 13 road games left), they would wind up somewhere in the neighborhood of 38 wins, which is good enough for 86 points. Of course, we haven’t factored in the extra point for OT or SO losses, which would be absolutely critical down the stretch.

What do these numbers mean? Nothing tangible, other than the fact that the Wings would likely have to increase their actual winning percentage if they want to make the playoffs.

Wait, what do you mean “would LIKELY have to increase?”

Read on.

How do they get there?

Well, the road won’t be easy. According to the always excellent Dirk Hoag over at Predators blog On the Forecheck, the Wings have the 8th hardest remaining strength of schedule. Lucky for them, Dallas, Calgary and Nashville all have tougher schedules, according to Mr. Hoag.

Of the 54 remaining points available during the regular season, the Wings can only afford to miss out on 21 of them. Which brings us to our first point of business on the “run for 95″:

• 11 Regulation Losses = Golf Course in April

It’s simple: Lose 11 games in regulation and the only way you are getting in is if everyone else tanks down the stretch. 11 is the bad number.

Easy way to remember this: If the regulation defeats catch up to Dan Cleary’s jersey, let the wailing and gnashing of teeth begin.

However, on the flip side of the coin:

• 17 Wins = Hang the Octopus In the Rafters
  

17 wins x 2 points per win = 34 points + 62 pre-existing points = 96 TOTAL POINTS. The same 96 points that is the most ever needed to crash the 8 spot since the lockout. If the Wings win 17 and don’t make the playoffs, you just have to tip your hat to the team that went on the BONKERS run to beat us.

Easy way to remember this: We need to get a Patrick Eaves in the win column over the last 27.

What about all of the other scenarios?

I figured you would ask that, so I’ve broken down all of the records that we can obtain that would get us right to 95 points. These are the magic numbers. Here’s how it looks:

(Number of regulation losses | Record (w/that number of losses) that gets us exactly to 95 points)

• 10 Losses | 16-10-1
• 9 Losses | 15-9-3
• 8 Losses | 14-8-5
• 7 Losses | 13-7-7
• 6 Losses | 12-6-9
• 5 Losses | 11-5-11
• 4 Losses | 10-4-13
• 3 Losses | 9-3-15
• 2 Losses | 8-2-17
• 1 Loss | 7-1-19
• 0 Losses | 6-0-21

(FTR, there are actually 132 record combinations of 10 or less losses that would get the Wings at or over 95 points.)

Now, back to your “LIKELY” question…

It is completely possible for the Wings to decrease their win percentage from the first 55 games and still see themselves wind up in the playoffs. 12 wins or less, and they would actually have a WORSE winning percentage than the 47% they’ve put up so far this season. Crazy.

What Does It All Mean?

At this point? Not a whole lot. Obviously, there are 800 different ways this whole exercise becomes null and void. Nobody knows if 95 points will ACTUALLY be good enough to make the playoffs. Anything can happen.

But I guarantee you this: As you watch the last 27 games, you’ll find yourself pulling more for Patrick Eaves than you will Dan Cleary and you’ll know exactly how many wins or losses away from the 95 points we are as you stare at those standings, mentally willing Calgary into that 9th spot.

Tags: Dan Cleary, Patrick Eaves